Fuel prices to increase marginally – IES analysis

Fuel price to increase Fuel price to increase

Local Fuel Market Performance

Price of fuel on the local market remained largely stable within the window under review. Price of petroleum products within the first Pricing-window of February 2021 saw few Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) increasing their figures marginally close to the end of the window. The current national average price of fuel per litre at the pump is pegged at GH¢5.03.

For this Pricing-window, Zen Petroleum, Benab Oil, Petrosol and Frimps Oil sold the least-priced fuel on the local market according to IES Market-Scan.

World Oil Market

For the window under assessment, international benchmark, Brent crude price averaged about $58.59 per barrel mark representing a 5.09percent increase from the previous window's average price of $55.75 per barrel mark.

The Brent crude price increase is coming on the back of the tightening of markets due to recovering demand for oil products from particularly China, which put slight pressure on supplies and created backwardation in the market.

Also, other factors include the compliance by members of OPEC+ towards their production cuts as announced last year, the voluntary additional cuts in production by Saudi Arabia, a member of OPEC+, an increase in crude prices as delivered to Europe by Saudi Arabia and Asia and lastly, the looming stimulus rollout in the United States.

Gasoline and Gasoil prices as monitored on Standard and Poor's global Platts platform show that price of the international commodities Gasoline and Gasoil experienced marginal increments.

Gasoline saw an increase in price by 4.82percent to close the window at $526.75 per metric tonne from an earlier $502.50 per metric tonne.

Gasoil price also increased by 4.58percent to close trading at $474.81 per metric tonne from $454.00 at the end of the second pricing window of January 2021.

Local Forex

Data collated by IES Economic Desk from the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market shows the Cedi improved on its stability against the U.S. Dollar by 0.17percent trading at GH¢5.78 to the US Dollar.

Projections for January 2021 Second Pricing-Window

Due to factors including the 5.09percent increase in price of the International Benchmark- Brent crude, the 4.58percent increase in price of Gasoil, the 4.82percent increase in Gasoline price and the 0.17percent marginal appreciation of the local currency against the US Dollar; the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects for an increase in price of fuel on the domestic market at the various pumps as we continue into, February 2021.

For the majority of OMCs that maintained their prices at the pump within the last window, we expect to see an increment this window taking into consideration the international changes in prices over the period.

Source: Fritz Moses (Research Analyst) IES